Monday, 16 January 2012

Psychological Aspect of Investing/Trading

‘Learn to be comfortable being uncomfortable’
Trading/Investing is just like another game to me, where you require not only good skills but also good mental preparation.
Successful people who are successful in their field are usually not born with it, but rather it’s the time and effort which they have put in which makes the things which they do look so simple to everyone else whereas to them it’s just another day. For more on this I highly recommend Outliers: The story of Success by Malcolm Cladwell. Similarly, trading or investing, if you put in enough time and effort to understand the process and build your own investing/ trading system, it’s the constant process of building a plan of action, executing it, reviewing the result, with the help of review improving your plan and doing it again and again till you get the ‘Aha’ moment where everything falls into place. For some it might take 100 hours, 1000 hrs or even more than 10,000 hours.
Building a trading or investing plan is 10% of the game, 90% is mental preparation. The reason being you can develop a plan, however, if mentally your not prepared to accept failure and try to grow, you won’t be able to improve neither as an individual nor as a successful trader. Remember, failure is part and parcel of life, you learn the most from failure, the reason being you got hurt and bled and you don’t want it to happen again. In trading terms, having a loss in one of your investment or trade will make you go back and reevaluate everything from scratch as to why it happened, never let a loss demoralise you which will only happen when you are willing to accept the fact that you were wrong and are willing to close out your losing position. The success is a sweetener to your good preparation and execution.
One of the best videos about mental preparation that I have come across is about Evan Longoria

Monday, 2 January 2012

2012: Top Down Sector Analysis Part 2

4. SPDR Consumer Discretionary (NYSE: XLY)
This is sector has held up really well even after the volatile 2011. $35 region has been a nice support as long the prices are above $35.
I like Mcdonald’s (NYSE: MCD), however not at these prices. If you are trying to have NYSE: MCD in your portfolio look for dips in the market for buying opportunities as a long term hold. A slight pullback to $90-$95 region would give the best risk-reward play.

5. SPDR Consumer Staples (NYSE: XLP)
As long it hold $29 region, I would be a dip buyer in this name.
I didn’t like any of the chart setups in this sector. Maybe in a few weeks time, some of them might setup.
6. SPDR Energy (NYSE: XLE)
I need to see how it behaves in the $82 region.
I like Elpaso Corporation (NYSE: EP) as long as it holds over $22

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2012: Top Down Sector Analysis Part 1

Happy New Year to you all. I decided to do a quick top-down analysis on individual sectors and some of the names which I like. This is by no means  a recommendation to go long or short.
1. SPDR Financial (NYSE: XLF):
Below is the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Financial Sector. As it can be seen, there is heavy resistance at 17.50 region dating back to July 2008, when the mortgage crisis started. It’s gonna be a long hard grind for the financial sector to come to the 17.50 region. Fundamentally, with tighter and tighter regulations
across the board, profits of the financial companies would get affected by it. In terms of growth, I don’t see a lot of potential.
All the big names in the financial sector on the longer timeframes still look  to be in the consolidation phase. I personally don’t like any of the big names in this sector.
2. SPDR Utilities (NYSE: XLU)
This sector which is one of the good names to be in during recession is moving up in an upward channel.
I like  Southern Company (NYSE: SO) in this sector.

3. SPDR Technology (NYSE: XLK)
This sector has to see some improvement, if the markets are to be bullish. Currently, it’s also in a sideways consolidation phase
I would like this to break 29 region to take us in the bullish pahse in the market.
I like Google (NASD: GOOG), Visa (NYSE: V)

I will doing another post for the rest of the sectors in my next post.

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